After the disastrous voting glitch in the Iowa caucuses created even more chaos for the Democratics, a new poll shows a clear front runner in the race to defeat Donald Trump in the 2020 election.
Sanders Surges in New Poll
The poll, conducted by Quinnipiac University, shows Bernie Sanders pulling ahead with 25 percent–a gain of 4 points following Iowa. The survey targeted registered Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents across the United States. Here are the complete results for the top candidates:
- Bernie Sanders: 25%
- Joe Biden: 17%
- Michael Bloomberg: 15%
- Elizabeth Warren: 14%
- Pete Buttigieg: 10%
- Amy Klobuchar: 4%
Could Bloomberg Be the Answer?
It’s worth noting that while Sanders is in the lead, Bloomberg has surged since Iowa, nearly doubling his percentage points as Biden slumps.
The former New York mayor also dominates the projected battle between Trump, with a projected 51-42% victory in a general election. However, all the Democrat candidates are predicted to defeat Trump in the 2020 election, albeit with shrinking margins. Pete Buttigieg has the worst margin, beating Trump by just 4 points.
The Favorability Problem
Every Democratic candidate has a favorability problem to some extent. Senator Elizabeth Warren has a negative net favorability rating, meaning that more people disapprove of her than approve. Biden and Sanders also trend negative.
Bloomberg has a negative rating as well, but 25 percent of people surveyed reported that they did not know enough about him to make that call. Buttigieg and Klobuchar are the only main contenders with positive favorability ratings, but they also need to do more work in making sure voters know who they are and what they stand for.
What Happens Next?
The main problem the Democratic Party faces is the fragmentation of the voter base. With so many candidates polling strongly–and with the two front runners nearly tied–it will be difficult to rally behind a single nominee.
The number-crunchers at FiveThirtyEight have concluded that there’s a 1 in 4 chance that “no single candidate wins a majority.” It’s possible that more will become clear after the New Hampshire primary today, but Sanders is predicted to win there as well, with Buttigieg coming second and Biden falling further.